气候变化背景下成都都市圈蓝绿空间格局演变特征及机制
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国家自然科学基金面上项目“气候适应型成渝地区景观格局构建与规划设计响应”(编号:32371942)


Evolution Characteristics and Mechanisms of Blue-Green Space Patterns in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area Under the Context of Climate Change
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    摘要:

    在气候变化加剧的背景下,探明气候因素对蓝绿空间格局演变的驱动机制,对实现可持续发展具有重要意义。利用1980年、2000年、2020年三期土地利用数据和1980–2020年气候数据,基于气候倾向率、动态变化模型、马尔科夫转移矩阵、景观格局指数等方法,借助ArcGIS和FRAGSTATS软件,分析成都都市圈蓝绿空间气候因素及景观格局的时空演变特征,并通过灰色关联度法探讨气候因素对景观格局变化的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)1980–2020年成都都市圈年均气温、降水量和潜在蒸散量均与时间呈正相关,仅年均日照时数与时间呈负相关;空间分布上,降水量趋于均匀分布,其余气候因素在山脉和城镇区域的差异化加剧;(2)成都都市圈蓝绿空间面积在1980–2000年减少22.74 km2,在2000–2020年增加62.45 km2,蓝绿空间破碎化加剧,斑块边缘复杂度加重,景观类型增加且分布愈加均匀;(3)气候因子与蓝绿空间景观格局指数关联度均值由大到小依次为年均潜在蒸散量(0.78)、年均日照时数(0.76)、年均降水量(0.74)、年均气温(0.72),表明气候因素变化对蓝绿空间景观格局演变具有较强的驱动作用。研究结果可为成都都市圈蓝绿空间规划和管理、气候适应型格局构建提供科学依据和参考。后续拟纳入自然地理、社会经济等因素进行驱动机制的对比分析,并进一步围绕气候适应型景观格局构建、气候变化风险评估、多尺度气候适应型响应等方面进行探索。

    Abstract:

    In the context of intensified climate change, exploring the driving mechanism of climate factors on the evolution of blue-green spatial patterns is significant for achieving sustainable development. This study uses three periods of land use data from 1980, 2000, and 2020 and climate data from 1980 to 2020. Based on methods such as climate tendency rate, dynamic change model, Markov transition matrix, and landscape pattern index. Using ArcGIS and FRAGSTATS software, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of climate factors and landscape patterns in the blue-green space of the Chengdu metropolitan area are analyzed, and the driving mechanism of climate factors on landscape pattern changes is explored through the grey correlation method. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the average annual temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration in the Chengdu metropolitan area were positively correlated with time, with only a negative correlation between the average annual sunshine hours and time. In terms of spatial distribution, the evolution of four meteorological factors mainly occurred in mountainous and urban areas. (2) The blue-green space area in the Chengdu metropolitan area decreased by 22.74 km2 from 1980 to 2000 and increased by 62.45 km2 from 2000 to 2020. The fragmentation of blue-green space intensified, the complexity of patch edges increased, the landscape types increased, and the distribution became more uniform. (3) The average correlation between climate factors and the blue-green spatial landscape pattern index, in descending order, was annual potential evapotranspiration (0.78), annual sunshine hours (0.76), annual precipitation (0.74), and annual temperature (0.72), indicating that climate factor changes had a strong driving effect on the evolution of blue-green spatial landscape patterns. The research results can provide a scientific basis and reference for planning and managing blue-green space in the Chengdu metropolitan area and constructing a climate adaptive pattern. Subsequently, it is intended to include factors such as natural geography and socio-economic factors for comparative analysis of driving mechanisms. It will also explore areas such as climate adaptive landscape pattern construction, climate change risk assessment, and multi-scale climate adaptive response.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-20
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